Brienne tried some of these and they didn’t work; her seasonal depression got so bad that she had to move to the Southern Hemisphere three months of every year just to stay functional.No doctor had any good ideas about what to do at this point.They also have enough money that if they see a money-making opportunity, they can keep buying until they’ve driven the price up to the right level.So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a Thai restaurant.If it didn’t, some entrepreneur would wander through, see that they could get really rich by opening a Thai restaurant, and do that.Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.This brighter light box cured Brienne’s depression when the conventional treatment had failed.
Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize.This isn’t to say nobody can ever win a Nobel Prize.But winners will probably be people with access to new ground that hasn’t already been covered by other -seekers.Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like she’s had a deep insight into the structure of DNA, easily worthy of a Nobel. For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of Google, or every entrepreneur missing a great market opportunity for a Thai restaurant.So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.